“American and European diplomacy has failed”/ American analysts condemn the attack in the north of Kosovo, divided on the West’s next steps

American analysts condemn the attack by the armed group in the north of Kosovo, as a result of which a member of the police lost his life. In interviews with VOA on Sunday, David Kanin, a professor of European Studies at Johns Hopkins University, and Charles Kupchan, a fellow at the American Council on Foreign Relations, expressed concern about the tense situation. But in conversations with colleague Keida Kostreci, they gave different opinions on how the West should act next.

David Kanin of Johns Hopkins University says for the Voice of America, that in terms of nature and organization, the latest attack is different from other violent incidents in that area of Kosovo.

“It should be treated as a separate unacceptable act of violence, in which at least 30 armed assailants not only killed a Kosovo policeman, but attacked a Serbian monastery. And I think the reaction of the Serbian Orthodox Church is important. It is clear that the people in the monastery were unhappy that they entered their monastery”, says prof. Kanin who adds that this attack was a provocation.

Charles Kupchan, a fellow at the American Council on Foreign Relations, deplored the violence but said he was not too surprised by it.

“This is because the tension in that part of the country has been building for some time. We have seen outbreaks of violence related to the installation of a series of presidents in the north elected by a very, very small percentage, while Serbian residents boycotted the last elections”, says Mr. Kupchan for Voice of America.

But he adds that while unsurprising, the escalation seriously raises the risk of further violence.

The prime minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti, accused Belgrade of the escalation, saying it was behind the attack. While the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vučič, blamed Mr. Kurti for the situation in the North, whose attitude, according to him, caused the Serbian residents to no longer endure.

Mr. Kanin said that Prime Minister Kurti’s reaction was appropriate.

“Kosovo is the victim here. They are the people who were attacked. And Kurti said ‘what else can you expect, Belgrade should be blamed’. Vucic was on the defensive, trying to distance Serbia from what happened by referring to the attackers as rebel Serbs, giving them some kind of context and some kind of justification. But it is clear that he is not satisfied”, he says.

But Mr. Kupchan says that both sides are responsible for the stalemate and the escalation of violence: Serbia, which has effectively kept the north more connected to Belgrade than to Pristina, and Prime Minister Kurti with actions that Mr. Kupchan calls provocative and unnecessary. He adds that the escalation is alarming to Westerners.

“And I think the United States and the EU will see this as a warning sign. I would not be surprised if we see a possible increase in the size of the presence of the international community in the region”, he says.

For Mr. Kupchan, this event does not mean that Mr. Kurti is justified in his actions so far that have been criticized by the West. He says that the pressure should continue intensively on both sides.

“When tensions are high, extremists take advantage to organize and when there is a polarized situation, when there is friction between communities, the risk of paramilitary organizations increases, the risk of citizens in the north taking matters into their own hands increases, even if they are not instructed to do so by the authorities in Belgrade,” he tells VOA.

Therefore, he says, the only way is to return to the dialogue table, as the event is a reminder that although agreements have been reached, neither side is acting to implement them.

“If there is a positive element here, it is that it reminds Pristina and Belgrade that we are not that far from escalation and violence, and that both sides should return to the diplomatic table. “Both sides need to show restraint before things get out of hand,” he says.

Mr. Kanin, a former senior CIA analyst, tells VOA that it is important for the West to be united in dealing with the recent violence separately from the diplomatic process.

Serbian President Vučić said after the latest escalation that the only solution is to create the Association of Municipalities with a Serbian Majority in the North and a police force composed of local Serbs. Prime Minister Kurti has resisted calls for him.

Mr. Kupchan of the American Council on Foreign Relations says that the Association should be created.
Kupchan

“I think it is in the interest of Kosovo and it is in the interest of Prime Minister Kurti to form the Association of Serbian Municipalities”, he says.

But Mr. Kanin thinks otherwise.
“The creation of the Association would be very beneficial to Serbia. What would disappear would be another level of Kosovo’s sovereignty in the north. If the Association is created, Kosovo would find it even more difficult to respond to such incidents”, he says